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The Music Success Formula - Rough Cut

So I got the idea of creating a "back of the envelope" formula that will be a quick way to determine a band's potential of "breaking through" to the next level. This has the potential to be very useful to many musicians, but I need your help refining the idea. Please, poke holes in this so we can strengthen the idea!

What i've developed so far is based off the simple equation for force  (force = mass X velocity) except replacing the variables with things related to bands. It would measure, on a scale of 1 to 10 the band's potential to reach their ""fan goal" (which goes into the equation) 

You'll notice music quality is not central to the formula. The reason for this is, due to the subjective nature, it's often difficult to tell which music will sell or not. The goal of this formula is to get bands to focus on improving their strategies of getting their music out to the world. The formula makes little distinction on the music itself, it's up to you to ensure your art is as refined as it can be.

Band's Potential of Reaching their fan goal (scale of 1 to 10) = quality of the band    X   quality of promotion.

This would be broken down further into:
   quality of the band = music quality + music production quality + live show quality + merch quality
    where each item would be on a sliding scale like so
    -Music quality (this has to be subjective, on a scale from 0 to 3)
    -Music production quality (0 = home recording, 1 = midrange qualty, 2 = professional quality)
    -Live show quality (0 = mojque, 1 = crowd interaction & presence, 2 = effects light show & "crowd pleasers", 3 = Lady Gaga Sized production)
    -Merch quality (0 = no merch, 1 = some T shirts-OK quality 2 = run by merch girl with lights & pro level equipment)

   qualty of promotion = {current "pull" at shows + (fans contacted monthly X conversion rate X 12  } / "fan goal"

By filling this out, the band would know what their relative chances of meeting their "fan goals" within a year are.

I need your input. This could help MANY people if we get this refined!


  1. Hey, like the post!

    Might need to change the "0=Home Recording", as I've heard some home recordings that sounded very nice. In contrast, I've heard some "professional studio" recordings that made me gag.

    Heir to Madness

  2. True, you can get into studio cheaply but the choice of producer, engineer and mastering engineer has a PROFOUND and IMMUTABLE on the quality of your music. Sure, you can record in a bedroom with top of the line gear, but if you can barely work protools it'll undermine the quality of your songs.

    The main goal I tried to achieve with this particular measure is to get the artist to be harsh in evaluating what they bring to the table, so by adding barriers (cash,time) to having the highest level production, I hoped to have more people nudged towards a lower ranking.